PAKISTAN’S social protection system is at a cr--o-s--sroads. Traditional social protection systems, while providing critical support for poverty reduction, are not designed to address the compounding challenges of climate-triggered disasters. The cou-n-try’s flagship Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) needs to integrate an adaptive social protection system that can respond to climate risks and shocks while maintaining its core poverty alleviation function. This transition can be spearheaded by the pr--ovinces, where provincial BISP set-ups are sear-ch-ing for province-specific priorities and innovations.

BISP has emerged as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s poverty alleviation strategy. It operates largely in isolation from the country’s disaster risk management and climate adaptation efforts, resulting in inefficient resource utilisation and inadequate protection when disasters strike as has been the case in the recent floods, heatwaves, droughts, and glacial outbursts.

Pakistan’s social protection policy has evolved from welfare state approaches to targeted social assistance programmes, with BISP launched in 2008 as a globally pioneering initiative. It has successfully delivered financial assistance to millions of households with advanced beneficiary identification and sophisticated payment systems. However, it lacks mechanisms for scaling up assistance during climate-triggered disasters, integration with early warning systems and anticipatory actions to mitigate pre-disaster impacts.

Government responses to emergencies have been largely reactive rather than systematic. Critical gaps in climate response include institutional fragmentation, limited coverage, vulnerable households outside safety nets during disasters, focus on post-disaster response rather than risk reduction, inadequate data integration and predominantly reactive financing.

The 18th Amendment, 2010, has devolved many social protection responsibilities from federal to provincial governments, creating coordination challenges and gaps in comprehensive social security coverage. The overall landscape has become incoherent, fragmented and inadequately responsive to growing vulnerabilities.

Globally, several social protection programmes have evolved to integrate anticipatory social protection and environmental conservation. Pakistan needs a systematic transformation of BISP that encompasses institutional reforms, governance realignments, and innovative financing mechanisms. This will hinge on expanding BISP’s mandate through legislative amendments, building robust early warning integration, developing anticipatory action protocols, and establishing multi-layered financing that combines domestic resources and international climate finance. It is a tall order but an important one, which is necessary to address the fragmentation of social protection responsibilities between the federal and provincial governments, which is hampering a coordinated response to cross-jurisdictional climate disasters.

Adaptive social protection offers a promising integrated approach that combines social protection, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to create more responsive safety nets. ASP acknowledges the interconnectedness of soc-ial, economic and environmental vulnerabilities rather than treating poverty and climate risks separately. By enhancing the resilience of vulnerable households to various shocks, ASP creates safety nets that respond dynamically to emerging threats while building long-term resilience. This integration is particularly important for Pakistan, where climate hazards disproportionately affect the poor and threaten to undermine development gains.

Pakistan needs to significantly improve its Social Protection Index ranking while building resilience among vulnerable communities facing escalating climate risks. In comparative regional terms, its social protection expenditure (0.5 to 1.4 per cent of GDP) lags significantly behind regional counterparts. The country’s Social Protection Index is about 0.07, lower than Bangladesh (0.33), India (0.46) and Sri Lanka (0.47). Coverage rates are similarly concerning, with only 9.2pc of the population receiving benefits compared to 53pc in Bangladesh and nearly 100pc eligibility in India.

Pakistan needs a systematic transformation of BISP.

In the climate change context, the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-triggered disasters exacerbate existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities, creating a cycle of crisis and recovery that traditional systems struggle to address. India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and Bangladesh’s National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) offer fascinating regional case studies.

MGNREGA offers a compelling model of integrating environmental conservation with social protection. It guarantees 100 days of unskilled wage employment yearly to rural households, with significant work focused on natural resource management activities that enhance climate resilience while providing income support. MGNREGA reaches approximately 140m beneficiaries across 270m rural households, contrasting sharply with Pakistan’s more limited BISP reach of 4pc of the population, reaching upto 8.5m households.

MGNREGA has created water harvesting structures that improve agricultural productivity and reduce vulnerability to droughts. In Rajasthan, it has constructed over 125,000 water conservation structures, benefiting 1.8m farmers. Some studies indicate MGNREGA has sequestered around 102m tonnes of carbon through various environmental initiatives, creating prospects of carbon credits.

MGNREGA and BISP represent fundamentally different approaches. MGNREGA’s demand-driven employment guarantee programme creates direct mechanisms for environmental intervention through public works, while BISP’s cash transfer approach disburses cash without a built-in environmental dimension. Approximately 60pc of MGNREGA works focus on biodiversity and natural resource management. BISP has no comparable environmental intervention mechanisms.

Bangladesh’s NSSS has pioneered climate-respo-nsive social protection by targeting vulnerable reg-ions and integrating a disaster response with long-term resilience building. The social protection system reaches about 28pc of the population, including over 9m beneficiaries in climate-vulnerable coa-stal areas, achieving greater coverage in at-risk zones than Pakistan’s limited presence in similar regions.

There is a case for Pakistan to adapt elements of regional success stories, potentially through a hybrid model combining BISP’s cash transfers with optional public works in environmentally vulnerable areas. To achieve regional parity in social protection coverage, Pakistan would need to dramatically expand its safety net. Achieving even a modest target of 40pc coverage by 2047 would require Pakistan to extend protection to some 140m people — more than six times the current coverage.

Sustainable financing needs domestic resource mobilisation, innovative risk transfer mechanisms, international climate finance, and private sector engagement. Climate risk financing instruments need to complement budgetary resources through a layered strategy combining contingency funds for frequent events with insurance mechanisms. Like others, Pakistan can explore international climate finance to advance adaptive social protection.

Transforming BISP into an adaptive social protection system requires expanding its scope beyond cash transfers while maintaining its core poverty alleviation function. This vision encompasses BISP evolving into a responsive mechanism that can scale assistance during climate shocks, incorporate anticipatory actions, and build long-term community resilience.

The writer is a climate change and sustainable development expert. This column is based on his keynote address at the Second National Social Protection Conference, organised by the German Agency for International Cooperation, Karachi.

Published in Dawn, March 13th, 2025