? The dam is holding 4.3MAF of water against its capacity of 7.3MAF
? Below average inflows in Jhelum mean water in reservoir increases only a few inches each day

LAHORE: Despite record rainfall and flooding in rivers, experts have warned of a 25 per cent water shortage in a few months due to a significant decline in Jehlum River’s inflows.

The drop in inflows has also slowed the filling of the Mangla Dam, one of the country’s two biggest reservoirs.

Inflows in the Jhelum River on Saturday dropped to 25,200 cusecs, 47 per cent less than its recorded average. On the corresponding day last year, the inflows were 39,700 cusecs.

The last five-year average for the day was 47,900 cusecs and 44,200 cusecs for the last 10 years.

Due to lesser inflows, water in the Mangla dam was only increasing a few inches each day. According to water experts, this could result in a 25pc water shortage in the coming Rabi season.

From Thursday to Friday, the dam’s storage only increased from 1,200.65 feet to 1,201.20 feet, 41ft below the total capacity of 1,242 feet.

Currently, the dam is holding 4.3 million acre feet (MAF) of water against its total live capacity of 7.3MAF.

The loss of 3MAF water would translate into up to 12 to 15 per cent water shortages in the coming Rabi season.

Adding the permanent water loss of eight to 10pc due to the reduced capacity of the Tarbela Dam — as a result of silt accumulation — the country is expected to suffer 20 to 25pc water loss during the next Rabi season, according to experts.

According to the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) data, all but one river yielded less water than they did last year.

The data from April 1 to July 31 showed the Indus River produced 37.20MAF water, which is 31pc higher than its 10-year average and 36pc more than last year.

During the same period, the Kabul River yielded 8.2MAF water, 36pc less than its 10-year average and 53pc less than last year.

The Chenab River nearly maintained its average yield with 10.70MAF water, still 6pc less than the 10-year average but 3pc more than last year.

In total, the Jehlum river produced 8.7MAF water in the last four months. It was 27pc less than the last year and 28pc less than the 10-year average.

Tensions between India and Pakistan since early May have also affected water inflows in the Mangla Dam.

India has stopped sharing river inflows data since April when it unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.

Irsa Spokesman Khalid Idrees Rana has said almost half a million acre feet of water had to be released from Mangla Dam to cover for the uncertainty created by India’s decision.

“On May 5, inflows in the Chenab river dropped from 35,000 cusecs to mere 5,000 within 24 hours.

Similarly, on May 31, it dipped from 45,000 to a paltry 7,000 cusecs,“ Mr Rana added.

Earlier, on April 5, inflows dropped from 10,000 to 4,000 cusecs.

To cover for these inconsistencies and ensure smooth irrigation of crops, Irsa released additional water from the Mangla Dam, Mr Rana said, adding these factors apparently slowed the reservoir’s filling.

“Normally, we get two to three late showers every monsoon, which helps Mangla dam filling,” he said, adding the downpour didn’t happen this year and there was no forecast for one in the near future.

Published in Dawn, August 3rd, 2025