ISLAMABAD: In the aftermath of the April 22 attack in occupied Kashmir, regional relations “remain fragile” and there is a risk that terrorist groups “may exploit these”, a UN monitoring report has warned.

The assessment came in the thirty-sixth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which was submitted to the UN Security Council Committee earlier this week.

The report, covering January to June 2025, warned that terrorist groups were increasingly likely to exploit regional tensions between India and Pakistan to expand influence and carry out attacks.

After the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 people, Pakistan and India engaged in a brief but inte-nse conflict in May, trading heavy fire and missiles for several days.

Says TTP given ‘permissive environment’ by Kabul; has ties with IS-Khorasan, Al Qaeda, Baloch insurgents

The Resistance Front (TRF) initially claimed the attack but later withdrew its claim. The incident reignited debate over TRF’s alle-ged ties to Lashkar-i-Tayyiba (LeT).

“One member state said the attack could not have happened without Lashkar-i-Tayyiba (LeT) support, and that there was a relationship between LeT and TRF,” the report said.

“Another member state said that the attack was carried out by TRF, which was synonymous with LeT. One member state rejected these views and said that LeT was defunct.” The member states with diverging views were not named.

‘Substantial logistical and operational support’

It also said that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued to receive “substantial logistical and operational support” from Afghanistan’s de facto authorities and maintained tactical ties with Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), Al Qaeda, and Baloch separatist groups.

The report said that the TTP, operating under a “permissive environment” inside Afghanistan, has access to a range of weapons that have enhanced the lethality of its operations. “TTP had approximately 6,000 fighters and continued to receive substantial logistical and operational support from the de facto authorities,” it said.

The report said that in Central and South Asia, various groups, including the TTP, acquired weapons (including Nato-standard) and equipment through cross-border smuggling and black-market trade.

“Member states reported that some of these groups employed “asymmetric” unmanned aerial vehicle attacks on Pakistani military installations in Sibi, Balochistan Province, and Machi, Punjab Province,” the report added.

Despite internal debates within the Taliban leadership about the need to distance itself from TTP to improve regional ties, member states assessed that the group’s operational capabilities remain robust. The report also cited instances of TTP training separatists in Balochistan and sharing facilities with Baloch separatists in southern Afghanistan.

“One member state reported that, in January 2025, TTP provided training to terrorists in Balochistan,” the report said, adding that “they (TTP and BLA) shared four training camps, including ones in Walikot and Shorabak and that Al Qaeda provided ideological and weapons training”.

However, others, who disagreed with the assessment about the TTP-BLA nexus, suggested that their coordination could be tactical at best in the shape of a non-aggression pact rather than a formal alliance. It added that the TTP also maintained tactical-level connections with IS-K. “Some member states reported that [the] TTP maintained tactical-level connections with [IS-K],” indicating operational coordination that enhances TTP’s capabilities in carrying out high-profile attacks in the region. Additionally, TTP shared training facilities with Al Qaeda.

Afghanistan’s Taliban regime was once again accused of enabling terrorist groups present on its soil. “The de facto authorities in Afghanistan continued to maintain a permissive environment for a range of terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, posing a serious threat to the security of Central Asian and other countries,” the report warned.

Rising IS-K threat

Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), more commonly known as ‘Daesh’, was identified as the most significant current terrorist threat in the South and Central Asian region, with an estimated 2,000 fighters. The report used the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K) to refer to the terrorist group.

The group, led by Sanaullah Ghafari, as per the report, continues to recruit across Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the Russian North Caucasus, while targeting Shia communities, foreign nationals, and Taliban officials.

The report also noted IS-K has been indoctrinating children for suicide missions. “In North Afghanistan and areas close to the Pakistani borders, IS-K indoctrinated children in madrassas, establishing a suicide training course for minors aged approximately 14 years old,” the report said.

Although Taliban crackdowns have weakened IS-K’s capabilities, it continues to operate with “relative impunity,” leveraging a diverse base of fighters, including Central Asians and female supporters.

Al Qaeda’s diminishing strength

The report said Al Qaeda’s footprint in Afghanistan has diminished significantly, with limited resources and reduced numbers, largely confined to six provinces: Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar, Uruzgan, and Zabul. However, the group retains aspirations for a global resurgence.

“Member states assessed that Al Qaeda in Afghanistan did not present an immediate threat for regional states since it possessed limited resources and had been drastically downsized,” the report noted.

The global network remains operational. Sayf al-Adl, believed to be the group’s de facto leader, has reportedly tasked senior operatives with reactivating cells in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and parts of Europe. Meanwhile, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has grown more confident under Osama Mahmoud, who was formally named emir in March 2025. “There were concerns that the confidence and ambition of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) were increasing,” the report said.

Published in Dawn, August 1st, 2025