National Food Security and Research Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain asserted on Thursday that Pakistan continued to hold a surplus of sugar and categorically dismissed reports of a shortage due to exports as a misleading perception.

Pakistan is once again in the grip of a familiar affliction: the annual sugar crisis. In 2025, retail sugar prices have surged past Rs200 per kilogramme in many urban and peri-urban markets, despite official statements insisting on sufficient stocks.

In the 2024-25 season, Pakistan’s sugar production is estimated to be 6.8 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to be 6.6m tonnes, leaving a very little surplus and minimal opportunity for market swings. Rather than a problem of genuine scarcity, this crisis appears to be largely manufactured, fuelled by a toxic combination of speculative hoarding, market manipulation, weak governance, and poor regulatory oversight. The result is that consumers are burdened, farmers are shortchanged, and trust in public institutions continues to erode.

Addressing a press conference on the matter today, Hussain said: “A perception is being created as if there is a major issue regarding the availability, supply or pricing of sugar.”

He added that the government has launched a crackdown on hoarders and profiteers, including retailers and even mill owners were being checked, to control manipulation in the market.

Referring to criticism over the government’s initial approval of sugar exports followed by import plans, Hussain said these narratives ignored historical trends and factual data. Citing records from the past ten years, he explained that sugar exports were traditionally allowed soon after the crushing season and were occasionally followed by imports — except in one or two years.

The minister explained that the Sugar Advisory Board — which includes federal ministers, secretaries, representatives from all four provinces and industry stakeholders — approved exports last year on the basis of data.

At the beginning of the season, Pakistan had an opening stock of 800,000 metric tonnes. The crushing season yielded 6.8 million metric tonnes of sugar, while the country’s annual domestic consumption stood at 6.3m metric tonnes — leaving a surplus of 1.3m metric tonnes.

“To prevent a supply glut that could harm both farmers and millers, the government had allowed gradual sugar exports,” he said.

Contrary to concerns that exports would lead to domestic shortages or price hikes, the market experienced a decline in prices from Rs138/kg to Rs119/kg after the export decision in October 2024.

“This proves that the export decision was not responsible for any artificial shortage or price inflation,” the minister added.

He acknowledged that initial projections for the 2024–25 season estimated sugar production at 7m metric tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year. However, climate change adversely impacted agricultural output, including sugarcane yield. As a result, actual production dropped to 5.8m metric tonnes.

Responding to the shortfall, the prime minister ordered an immediate halt to further exports in January 2025. By the end of the crushing season on April 30, the total available stock, including a buffer of 0.5m metric tonnes, stood at 6.3m metric tonnes, which matches national consumption requirements.

Currently, the country holds around 2m metric tonnes of sugar, enough to meet consumption needs for the next three months.

The minister attributed recent price increases to market manipulation by mill owners, wholesalers, and hoarders, particularly following a rise in sugarcane procurement prices from Rs450 to Rs700 per 40kg.

He said the government intervened and negotiated with stakeholders to fix the ex-mill price at Rs165 per kg and the retail price at Rs173/kg.

To ensure compliance, the government has launched enforcement operations against violators across the supply chain.

“Implementation will take some time, but the system is in place and action is underway,” he said.

Currently, retail prices have stabilised between Rs172 and Rs173/kg, while ex-mill prices are holding at Rs165.

Hussain noted that sugar prices in Pakistan were broadly aligned with those in neighbouring countries.

The minister added that Pakistan earned $402m from the export of 750,000 metric tonnes of sugar last year. However, he acknowledged that earlier approval could have fetched higher export rates.

To manage domestic availability, the government approved sugar imports of up to 500,000 metric tonnes, although only 300,000 tonnes were expected to be brought in, costing approximately $150m.

Downplaying the sugar issue as overblown, Hussain urged media and policymakers to shift their focus toward strategic national developments.

“Our real priority should be landmark achievements such as the recent trade agreement with the United States,” he said. He also highlighted broader signs of economic recovery, citing improved foreign exchange reserves, a rising Pakistan Stock Exchange and declining inflation rates as indicators of better economic management.

PSMA says sugar mills supply commodity at Rs165/kg

Separately, the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) said that all sugar mills were supplying sugar at Rs165/kg ex-mill and the country had ample stocks of sugar till mid-November 2025.

In a statement, a PSMA spokesman said the sugar supply chain was affected due to divergent administrative measures taken by some government institutions, which had been redressed and the supply of sugar was continuing.

The statement said the sugar industry had previously clarified that all mills were supplying sugar to the domestic market at Rs165/kg ex-mill.

“Mills are only concerned with the ex-mill prices, while the retail price of sugar in the market is normally determined by market forces which is now being controlled by the government. As per media reports, sugar is being sold at Rs200/kg but according to sugar industry information, the commodity in most markets is available at the government-set price of Rs173 up to Rs175/kg.”

The spokesperson clarified that sugar dealers were buying sugar from mills at Rs165/kg ex-mill and instead of giving it to domestic consumers, they were giving it to industrial and commercial consumers at higher profits.

“Price gougers and hoarders were creating hurdles in the supply of sugar that they had purchased before the price was fixed. They are blaming sugar exports by creating the impression of an artificial shortage of sugar.

“Linking sugar prices to exports is completely against the facts. The government had allowed the export of sugar only in case of surplus sugar from the carry-over stock of the last two years that was available with the mills and further surplus sugar was produced in the crushing season of 2023-24. Mills had to sell sugar at a loss well below the cost of production, while meeting the government’s condition of Rs140/kg.

“Before sugar exports, all official estimates had shown a strong possibility that the next crushing season would see a good sugarcane yield and produce more sugar, but due to global warming and climate change, sugarcane production and its sucrose level dropped, which adversely affected sugar production.”

The statement said that in the previous crushing season, the sugar industry purchased sugarcane up to Rs700 per maund, which was Rs425 per maund in the crushing season of 2023-24. This provided substantial benefits to the farmers; however, it led to the sugar industry’s cost of making sugar increasing significantly.

“There was also a manifold increase in other production costs, due to which sugar mills had to suffer continuous losses over the past several years, and now 12 sugar mills were closed and up for sale. Baseless accusations of profiteering on the sugar industry are unjustified.”

The PSMA said that all such issues would be resolved by deregulating the sugar sector at the earliest, just as happened in the case of rice and maize sectors.

Additional reporting by Tahir Sherani.